Layer 1 (L1) — A serve and return model that estimates each player's true win probability based on how they perform on their own serve and on the return, calibrated to the specific surface.
Layer 2 (L2) — An Elo model that tracks player ratings over time, updating after every match. It captures long-run skill levels and surface-specific strengths that shorter-term data alone can miss.
Ensemble & Discretionary — The two models are blended into a single output. A discretionary review then sits on top — covering gamestyles, scheduling, injury, and other qualitative factors the numbers cannot capture. Nothing is published without passing both.
The 3-Set Radar flags matches our model believes are likely to go the distance — all three sets in a best-of-three, or four or more sets in a Grand Slam. A match is flagged when two or more of seven criteria trigger simultaneously.
Skill Parity — how closely matched the two players are on the relevant surface.
Historical Pattern — how often their previous meetings have gone the full distance.
Form Convergence — whether both players are in similar form heading into the match.
3-Set Tendency (Main Tour) — each player's historical rate of going the distance at main tour level.
3-Set Tendency (Challenger) — the same measure at Challenger level, tracked separately.
Long Match Tendency — whether both players tend to play longer matches relative to the tour average.
H2H Tightness — whether their head-to-head record is competitive rather than one-sided.
This table shows two of the most important statistics in professional tennis for the players relevant to today's matches.
SPW% (Serve Points Won) — the percentage of points a player wins when they are serving. The tour average is around 63%. Players above this are strong servers. Players significantly below are vulnerable on serve.
RPW% (Return Points Won) — the percentage of points won when returning. The tour average is around 37%. Elite returners consistently push this above 40-42%.
The delta indicators (▲ / ▼) show two comparisons: how the player compares to the tour average, and how they compare to their own recent form. A player who is +7.8 vs tour but -3.4 vs themselves is performing above average overall but trending downward — a useful warning sign.
Numbers highlighted in yellow represent deltas of ±3 percentage points or more — a meaningful deviation worth noting.
The Form section shows the last 10 match results for players in and around today's card, displayed as a W/L sequence from oldest to newest — left to right.
Reading the sequence left to right tells you whether a player is improving, declining, or inconsistent. A player whose sequence reads W W L W W W W W W W is on a strong run with one blip. A player reading W W W W L L L L L L is in a concerning collapse.
Best in Form shows the players with the most wins in their last 10, with notable scalps listed underneath. Worst in Form shows the opposite — players who are struggling, with the quality of opponents they've lost to noted for context.
A bad run against top-20 opponents is very different to a bad run against lower-ranked players. The opponent context matters.